THE ELECTORAL SITUATION IN BULGARIA AT THE END OF MARCH 2026

The research company "U.S.S.", commissioned by the non-governmental organization "GID", conducted a public opinion poll among the adult population of Bulgaria to study electoral preferences ahead of the parliamentary elections.

Survey dates: March 21–24, 2026

Survey method: CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing) — an online survey in which respondents independently complete a structured questionnaire via a web interface (computer, tablet, smartphone).

Sample size: 899 respondents

Target audience: the adult population of Bulgaria aged 18 and older who have Internet access and use digital devices.

The maximum theoretical statistical margin of error for the representativeness of the proportion of a characteristic, with a confidence level of 0.95 and without accounting for the design effect, does not exceed 3,3%.

SURVEY RESULTS

According to the poll results, if parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria in the near future, among respondents who are most likely to vote, the “Progressive Bulgaria (Radev)” party would receive the most support –about 21.1%. Second and third place in the electoral ranking are held by “We Continue the Change / Yes, Bulgaria” and GERB-SDS, which have virtually the same level of support – approximately 18.2% and 18.0%, respectively, among those who have made up their minds and plan to vote. The next group of political forces with significant levels of support includes: “Revival” (Vazrazhdane) – about 10.6%—and DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms) – about 9.0%. Other parties have significantly lower levels of electoral support: BSP (United Left) – about 4.6%, MECh – about 2.0%, “Greatness” – about 1.3%, and “There Is Such a People” – 0.4%. It is also worth noting that 14.7% of Bulgarians surveyed remain undecided.

Comment by Ivan Zheved, head of the civil society organization “GID”: Pro-Russian political parties in Bulgaria may have the upper hand in forming a new coalition majority following the early parliamentary elections on April 19. The “Progressive Bulgaria” party, led by pro-Russian former President Rumen Radev, is expected to take first place in the elections and then form a coalition with parties that adhere to a hardline nationalist stance and are friendly toward the Kremlin. A pro-Russian coalition government in Sofia could halt the supply of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine and create a new government in Eastern Europe similar to Orbán’s.

The coalition of former President Radev’s “Progressive Bulgaria” party, together with the ultra-nationalist “Vadrazhane” (“Renaissance”) party and the Bulgarian Socialist Party’s “United Left” coalition, is slightly ahead of the pro-European parties in Bulgaria. Oligarch Delian Peevski’s “Movement for Freedom and Rights” — subject to sanctions under the Magnitsky List — may also join the slim pro-Russian majority led by Radev.

The elections, scheduled for April 19, 2026, are a result of protests that led to the fall of the government headed by the GERB-SDS coalition in December 2025. These will be the seventh parliamentary elections in Bulgaria since November 2021. Bulgaria has played a crucial role in supplying ammunition to Ukraine and strengthening the alliance with NATO. A pro-Russian coalition government threatens to change this course.

Press service of the research company "U.S.S."
www.ussresearch.org.ua
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